Participants made probability judgments of the format: “What is the probability that the weather is [X] on a random day in England?". Various weather events were used, and the queries included both marginal events, conditional events, conjunctions, and disjunctions. The total set of 20 unique queries formed a block within which the presentation order was randomized for each participant. The experiment consisted of three blocks, so that all participants responded to each unique query three times.

sundh2023.meanvariance.e3

Format

An object of class data.frame with 12420 rows and 10 columns.

Details

These data are licensed under CC BY 4.0, reproduced from materials in OSF.

ID
block

3 blocks in total

trial

Trial Number within a block

query, querydetail

Verbal descriptions of the query

querytype

Type of query: e.g. notBgA = p(¬B|A)

Estimate

Estimated probability, in percentages

starttime, endtime
RT

References

Sundh J, Zhu J, Chater N, Sanborn A (2023). “A Unified Explanation of Variability and Bias in Human Probability Judgments: How Computational Noise Explains the Mean Variance Signature.” Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 152(10), 2842--2860. doi:10.1037/xge0001414 .