Participants made probability judgments about future hypothetical events, of the format: “What is the probability that there will be an early UK general election AND the UK economy will recover this year?". The experiment consisted of three blocks, so that all participants responded to each unique query three times.
sundh2023.meanvariance.e4An object of class data.frame with 13320 rows and 7 columns.
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3 blocks in total
Verbal descriptions of the query
Type of query: e.g. not B given A = p(¬B|A)
Whether the query is about biden and 2050 climate goals or UK election and economic recovery
Estimated probability, in percentages
Sundh J, Zhu J, Chater N, Sanborn A (2023). “A Unified Explanation of Variability and Bias in Human Probability Judgments: How Computational Noise Explains the Mean Variance Signature.” Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 152(10), 2842--2860. doi:10.1037/xge0001414 .