Participants made probability judgments of the format: “What is the probability that the weather is [X] on a random day in England?". Various weather events were used, and the queries included both marginal events, conditional events, conjunctions, and disjunctions. The total set of 20 unique queries formed a block within which the presentation order was randomized for each participant. The experiment consisted of three blocks, so that all participants responded to each unique query three times.
zhu2020.bayesiansampler.e1An object of class data.frame with 7080 rows and 10 columns.
These data are licensed under CC BY 4.0, reproduced from materials in OSF.
3 blocks in total
Trial Number within a block
Verbal descriptions of the query
Type of query: e.g. notBgA = p(¬B|A)
Estimated probability, in percentages
Zhu J, Sanborn AN, Chater N (2020). “The Bayesian Sampler: Generic Bayesian Inference Causes Incoherence in Human Probability Judgments.” Psychological Review, 127(5), 719--748. doi:10.1037/rev0000190 .